Andy Burnham's path to becoming prime minister

Image source, Getty Images Published 11 minutes ago Labour MPs are about to start nominating their next leader following Sir Keir Starmer's resignation. Andy Burnham is so far the only MP who has announced their intention to stand, and is widely expected to become the prime minister later this month. It means the former Greater Manchester mayor could enter Downing Street just a few weeks after he returned to Parliament in a by-election in Makerfield. What happens next? There will be a week-long window between 9 and 15 July for MPs to gather the required nominations to stand under the party's rulebook. Leadership candidates need 20% of the party's MPs to nominate them. There are 403 Labour MPs, meaning the support of 81 is needed. They also need to be nominated by at least three of the 31 socialist societies and trade unions affiliated to the party, or 5% of the constituency Labour parties (CLPs). Affiliate nominees must comprise at least 5% of Labour's affiliated membership and include two unions, a group that includes GMB, Unite and Unison. On 13 July, candidates will take part in a parliamentary hustings where they can answer questions from fellow Labour MPs. If Burnham remains the only candidate, he could in effect hold a hustings all by himself. Affiliate nominations open at 18:00 BST on 15 July and close the same time the following day. The CLP nomination stage, if required, would begin on 20 July and end on 31 July. What happens if Burnham is the only candidate? This is the most likely scenario - so far, no other candidate has emerged as a likely challenger and most MPs are working on the assumption Burnham will become the next prime minister. Wes Streeting, Sir Keir's former health secretary, had been seen as the MP most likely to throw his hat in the ring. But that changed shortly after Sir Keir's resignation, when he instead endorsed Burnham and indicated he would not fight for the leadership. If Burnham secured 323 nominations, it would be mathematically impossible for a rival to reach the 81-MP threshold needed to run against him. If no other MP emerges as a challenger, Burnham could be the Labour leader by 17 July. However, he would not become the prime minister until three days later. That's because Sir Keir Starmer would need to formally tender his resignation to King Charles III at Buckingham Palace. The King would then invite Burnham to form a new government. As the leadership declaration would take place on a Friday, this official handover wouldn't happen until the next working day - Monday 20 July. What if another candidate emerges? If another candidate does emerge, then the Labour leadership contest would take place over Parliament's summer recess from 16 July onwards. Sir Keir Starmer would remain as the prime minister until Parliament returns on 1 September. In this scenario, a ballot would take place among party members and affiliated trade union supporters between 6 and 27 August to decide the winner. The result of this con