Behind the Curtain: The era of "normal" is over

We're locked in the fastest, broadest, most consequential reordering of politics, tech and business of our lifetimes — and it's a global phenomenon.Why it matters: The conventional wisdom is that everything is being disrupted everywhere. But we're actually experiencing the aftershocks of a decade of disruption in America and other advanced economies.The era of post-disruption society has begun. The new, unfolding era is being shaped by rising inequality, mass migration and immigration, surging populism, fading trust and emerging AI.The good news: This is navigable for leaders, and everyone, if you understand this shared global phenomenon.That's the unmistakable takeaway from polling of 20,000 people across the U.S., U.K., Canada, the European Union and Japan, coupled with individual interviews with 175 leaders in those countries. The strategic advisory firm FGS Global shared that research, "Global Radar 2026," exclusively with us for this column. The polling was conducted in November and the report will be out Thursday.The big picture: We plan to focus this year's "Behind the Curtain" columns on helping you better understand the tectonic plates shifting under our feet, and showing how the shifts are durable, global and navigable.Stop thinking about this as a disruption or brief retreat from "normal," or as a uniquely American or Trumpian moment. It's a living rewiring of societies, business and our way of life — and it's rapidly accelerating across the globe. You can't understand politics or investing, or even your own anxiety and opportunities, without reckoning with this.You see this in:The fall of a common reality, based on broadly agreed-upon facts. People distrust everyone with power or legacy.The surge of AI as an unrivaled, but polarizing, economic and political force.A big spike in public pessimism about government, economics, politics and life.A fast shift in what leaders need to know, do and master to survive.What's most striking is how these trends seem to be hitting every nation in very similar ways. A great example: The top political issue in every nation surveyed by FGS was inflation/cost of living.Health care was second in all but Japan (housing) and Canada (taxes).Just as inequality, migration and institutional decay foretold the explosion of populism across America and Europe, the reverberations are landing similarly across the nations surveyed.Let's go deeper on each big shift:1. Reality collapses: America isn't alone in witnessing a massive shattering of its common reality. The same mess is metastasizing across Europe, Canada and Japan.61% say mainstream news media can't be trusted. Politicians are the least trusted source of truth (22%), worse than ChatGPT (34%). More and more people worldwide cling to influencers in an atomized media ecosystem for some version of reality, leaving those people highly susceptible to manipulation and misinformation.2. AI scares: FGS found the same thing Axios is seeing in our internal readership data — a huge gap in AI views between people in power (elites) and everyone else. Elites are more optimistic of AI and more skeptical of regulation. Non-elites in all nations favor AI regulations. Young people, in particular, fear imminent job threats in every nation surveyed.Fun/scary fact: 35% think AI will "control" humans.Generational tensions are rising: Older people feel displaced. Young people feel locked out.3. Pessimism soars: We have a global gloom crisis on our hands. Huge majorities across all nations believe things are getting harder (73%) and are hopelessly rigged for the rich (74%), while their national identity (62%) and democracies (69%) slip away. "Pessimism on this scale, replicated across democracies, is not normal and may not be sustainable," FGS concludes.🚨 There is a strong, striking, similar desire (75%+) to preserve and protect traditional culture.Sad fact: A majority of Gen Z and millennials think it's impossible for some people to ever succeed, regardless of hard work.4. Leadership shifts: Anyone leading anything needs to rethink their assumptions and approach. You're operating in a hyper-volatile environment where people are anxious; distrustful of almost everyone in — and everything about — power; downbeat about the present and future; and fearful of AI making everything worse. Leaders urgently need new systems to understand the various realities, level with those around them about AI and its effect on their specific jobs, and prepare for hyper-volatility to accelerate.FGS points out that CEO access to senior White House officials is unusually direct, with the C-suite increasingly involved in government affairs on top issues.The skills that workers and employers need are changing much faster than reskilling is kicking in. "The pace of change may be as disruptive as the direction of change," FGS concludes.What you can do: This moment might feel impossible to navigate. It's not. It starts with broadening your thinking to match the new reality.If you're a leader or doing well, remember the vast majority of your fellow citizens, especially young ones, don't share your enthusiasm for booming markets and super-human AI. Everyone needs to do a better job explaining AI and other fast changes.Most people don't read, watch or listen to what you do. This requires a deeper understanding of our atomized media reality.People are hungry for clear, blunt, useful perspectives and directions at work, places of worship, and near home. The FGS study captured the hunger for authentic connection.Pessimism isn't a permanent condition. Business leaders are central to reversing it — by taking care of employees, equipping them for AI transition, and teaching them what leaders learn about the post-disruption era.The bottom line: Trust and authenticity have never been more important — and elusive.💡 Register here to receive the full FGS Radar Report when it's released Thursday.📱 Let us know what you think, and what you'd like to see our columns cover this year: jim@axios.com and mike@axios.com.Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: 3 titanic shifts hitting America at once."