How weight-loss drugs are reshaping the gym

The weight-loss drug boom is creating a whirlwind of uncertainty for the fitness industry around a very basic question: Will GLP-1 users work out more or less? Why it matters: About 1 in 8 U.S. adults have already taken the medications, whether for diabetes or weight loss purposes, according to the KFF Health Tracking Poll in May 2024 — and it's expected to keep surging.But experts say it's still too soon to know whether gyms will win or lose from the trend.State of play: Gyms sell the promise of getting in shape, and weight-loss drugs could help — or hurt — that pitch.Some who lose weight through GLP-1s might go to the gym more — while others may decide they don't need to go at all."There's certainly going to be people on both sides, and our data certainly shows it," TD Cowen equity analyst Max Rakhlenko, who tracks fitness companies, tells Axios.Companies like Life Time — which has more than 185 high-end gyms in 32 states — see an opportunity to help walk members through their weight loss journey."We know that if you're going to succeed with GLP-1s, you're going to have to learn how to exercise," Life Time chief science officer Jim LaValle tells Axios. "You're going to need to have some resistance exercise in order to maintain lean muscle, and you have to have proper dietary guidance."Zoom in: Some gyms are already taking steps to offer GLP-1s themselves or tailor workout programs for those getting the treatments.Life Time has launched a program called Miora at several locations, offering what LaValle calls "longevity and performance health."Miora medical professionals, such as nurse practitioners, craft "a personalized program" for each individual member, LaValle says. That can include prescribing GLP-1s.National gym chain Planet Fitness is "in conversations with several GLP-1 providers," chief marketing officer Brian Povinelli said in November at an event for analysts and investors."We're exploring possible avenues to align with them to help ensure GLP-1 customers have easy access to the critical fitness regimen they need to offset possible muscle loss."Gold's Gym in the Washington, D.C. area has partnered with wellness firm Idexa360 to offer its members discounts on GLP-1s and certain "longevity" medications.Equinox last year began offering a training program specifically tailored for the physical needs of people experiencing weight loss.In general, GLP-1 users often need to work to maintain muscle — which fits squarely within a broader fitness trend: a pivot toward strength training.Gen Zers have been showing more interest in strength equipment — and less interest in traditional cardio like the treadmill — prompting some gyms to change the type of equipment they offer.The bottom line: Gyms are already changing because of weight loss drugs — and the big question is whether users will show up for it."We're optimistic it's going to be a benefit," TD Cowen's Rakhlenko tells Axios. "The main question is how much?"