‘That’s a bad combination’: why Australia may be in for a slushy snow season

Tourists at Perisher in the Snowy Mountains, NSW. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast below average snowfall for alpine regions this winter. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian View image in fullscreen Tourists at Perisher in the Snowy Mountains, NSW. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast below average snowfall for alpine regions this winter. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian ‘That’s a bad combination’: why Australia may be in for a slushy snow season Snow arrives in time for the start of ski season, but climate change and El Niño mean it may not stick around for long, experts say Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast There was optimism across Australian alpine resorts this week as their social media channels filled with footage of snow flurries that arrived just in time for the opening of the ski season this weekend. “We couldn’t be more excited,” said the Instagram account of Perisher , the southern hemisphere’s biggest ski resort in Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales, as hands swept the fresh snow from outdoor tables. While the spectacular wintry scenes will bring enthusiasm, the outlook for the rest of the winter – and the coming decades – is not quite so positive. El Niño expected to develop in coming months, bringing hotter and drier weather to eastern Australia Read more With an El Niño looking likely to form in the coming weeks , the odds are stacked in favour of drier and warmer conditions though winter and spring. “Overall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Niño, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers,” said Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology. “It tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures. That’s a bad combination.” Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for the winter months suggests below average snowfall for Australia’s alpine regions (with the possible exception of Mount Mawson in Tasmania) while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average. “But these long-range forecasts can’t predict the day-to-day weather systems. We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through,” How said. Snow was falling at resorts this week ahead of Saturday’s opening day, but How said forecasts for next week were suggesting daytime temperatures of up to 10C. View image in fullscreen A map showing areas in brown that are expected to get below average precipitation between June and August 2026. Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology “Next week we start to see temperatures rising again. That means the snow might not stick around very long,” How said. He said for skiers, a strategy of being ready to respond to winter storms when they come “is definitely a good idea”. ‘Loading the dice’ For decades, climate scientists have been predicting that Australia’s alpine areas will get warmer, making the future challenging fo