UK and Ireland leaders fear for union’s future under Farage-led government

The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, wants to leave the European convention on human rights and renegotiate the Good Friday agreement. Photograph: Martin Pope/Getty Images View image in fullscreen The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, wants to leave the European convention on human rights and renegotiate the Good Friday agreement. Photograph: Martin Pope/Getty Images UK and Ireland leaders fear for union’s future under Farage-led government Politicians across Celtic nations braced for constitutional turmoil if Reform continues to rise The rise of Nigel Farage has prompted political leaders across Ireland, Northern Ireland , Scotland and Wales to game the unthinkable: the break-up of the United Kingdom. Unionists who wish to save the union and nationalists who wish to end it are bracing for constitutional turmoil if Reform UK emerges triumphant – with Farage as prime minister or official leader of the opposition – after the next election. Representatives from each side believe a Farage-led government could trigger a hasty referendum on Irish unification and usher in Trump-style anti-immigration crackdowns that alienate the Celtic nations. The possibility of a strong Reform opposition or coalition spooks the nations just as much. It is conceivable that “in just a handful of years’ time, people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea to a country where ICE-like snatch squads are arresting people off the streets” said Mark Drakeford , the former first minister of Wales, referring to the US Immigration ⁠and Customs Enforcement agency. Drakeford, who has repeatedly said he would fight to retain the union, worries that politics in Britain has irrevocably changed and fears there “there may not be time” for a considered debate about the UK’s future if Farage reaches Downing Street or Reform significantly boosts its number of parliamentary seats from the eight it now holds. View image in fullscreen Mark Drakeford, speaking at a conference in Belfast, said English nationalism risked pushing out Scotland and Northern Ireland, leaving Wales a ‘progressive pimple’ in a rump UK. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA “The United Kingdom is a voluntary association of four nations, and in any voluntary association there must be choices that people can make to stay in and choices that people can make to leave.” The former Welsh Labour leader made the warnings last week at a conference in Belfast organised by the Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP), during which figures from across the UK and Ireland voiced concern about the risk of being “bounced” into a vote on Irish unification. Ireland’s justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, said Dublin should begin preparing for unification rather than wait for English nationalism to set the timetable. “The future may not go down the predictable pathway of discussions and harmony,” he said. Irish leaders think the UK’s annual subvention for Northern Ireland, estimated to range between £6bn and £20bn, could become a