U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record

Data: Real Time Crime Index; Chart: Axios VisualsThe U.S. is on pace for the largest one-year drop in murders the nation has ever recorded, according to an analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher.The big picture: The decline in killings is part of a broader decrease in violent crime following the COVID-era spike. Mass killings in the U.S. also fell in 2025, reaching their lowest level since 2006.The Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies, shows a nearly a 20% decline in murders this year compared with the same period in 2024.The database, which Asher used in his analysis, does not consider manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, or "accidental killings" for the statistics, according to its online glossary.The database's statistics are currently available through October. The FBI will not release official 2025 violent crime data until sometime next year, though RTCI estimates have historically tracked closely with federal figures.Other major crime categories measured by the index were also down nationwide and across locations of all population sizes, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%) and robbery (18.3%).By the numbers: New York City and Memphis recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders compared with 2024, and Chicago saw them fall almost 28%.New Orleans saw a decline of 7.5%, while Los Angeles County recorded murders dropping by nearly 19%.Yes, but: A few cities saw spikes in murder rates this year. Both Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, reported increases of 600%, the index says.State of play: President Trump has prioritized cracking down on violent crime in his second term, though there is no clear evidence linking his policies to the decline. Crime rates have been declining since 2021, according to data from both the RTCI and FBI. Trump has deployed National Guard troops to various cities throughout the country that he says require additional support alongside law enforcement to fight escalating crime. D.C. — which he has claimed was made safer due to his efforts — saw nearly a 28% decline in murders this year. The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. Go deeper: Homicide rates plunging in Trump's "hellhole" cities