Off-cycle elections send Republicans a clear midterms warning

Data: Axios research; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/AxiosVoters swung left in every major election this year since President Trump's return to power in January.Why it matters: The off-cycle election results — combined with low approval ratings on Trump's handling of the economy — are red flags for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.For Democrats, the leftward current provides a much-needed confidence boost.The big picture: In key Congressional and state-level races this year, voters moved sharply to the left compared to last year's presidential election. In some races, the pendulum swung by double digits.Most recently, Miami elected its first Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years, beating a Trump-endorsed Republican.Zoom in: Earlier this month, Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated a progressive Democrat to represent a conservative Nashville-area district by nine points.That's a far narrower victory than Trump's 22-point win in the district last year.The narrower margin of victory also paralleled closer-than-expected results in Florida's special House elections earlier this year.State of play: Last month, Democrats bagged big wins in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California.Democratic victories were anticipated. But the size of the trouncing — including double-digit wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races — turned heads.What we're watching: Trump argues that the reason for the lackluster showing is that his name wasn't on the ballot.Voters won't see his name on the ballots during the midterms, but he has announced plans to travel more in the lead-up to the election.Democrats will also frame the election as a referendum on him.Go deeper: MAGA hunts for holiday unity amid widening civil war